13 media executives make 2024 predictions

It is probably the most great time of the 12 months! It is the third annual nameless media and leisure govt predictions record!

In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, I requested 12 previous and present executives on the world’s largest media and leisure corporations for one industry-shaking prediction for 2024. After which I requested another as a result of that is the vacation season, and I used to be feeling beneficiant. A baker’s dozen! Really, I requested just a few extra, however some overlapped.

Fairly just a few of final 12 months’s predictions were accurate. Disney Chief Government Bob Iger did extend his contract. Christine McCarthy stepped down as Disney’s chief monetary officer. Paramount International hasn’t offered, however controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is now in talks to sell Nationwide Amusements. Google’s YouTube acquired the National Football League’s “Sunday Ticket” package.

Some weren’t nearly as good. The media {industry} did not bounce again from recession in addition to one govt hoped. Netflix did not merge with one other firm. Apple did not ban TikTok from its app retailer.

Alas, hope strings everlasting with a brand new 12 months.

Government 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger, when Discovery mixed with WarnerMedia. That deadline is vital for Reverse Morris Trust tax reasons. With out entering into the boring particulars, the vital half is Warner Bros. Discovery can do one other important deal two years after the shut of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

One govt focused NBCUniversal because the most certainly acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This govt predicted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal in order that the brand new firm would commerce individually. However, Comcast (and Roberts) would preserve a controlling stake of the possession of the brand new entity.

A second govt instructed a extra expansive state of affairs. Comcast will preserve its theme parks enterprise however promote the remainder of the corporate in alternate for WBD frequent shares.  Comcast will get a premium for the rest of NBCUniversal in alternate for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav runs the mixed firm, with NBCUniversal movie chief Donna Langley staying on to run an expanded studio.

Government 2: Bob Iger will, once more, lengthen his contract as Disney CEO

Earlier this 12 months, Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract by way of 2026. Iger has said he actually plans to walk away from Disney without end when his contract is completed. Iger has prolonged his contract as CEO to keep away from retirement on 5 totally different events. In fact, when Iger left on the finish of 2021, he said the same thing.

This govt predicted “idiot me 5 instances, disgrace on me.” Disney has many strategic issues that do not have straightforward solutions, reminiscent of determining how ESPN’s enterprise matches in a direct-to-consumer world and how you can wind down its legacy TV cable networks. These issues demand a frontrunner with a gradual hand who understands the {industry}. Is there a greater chief of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has determined, over and over, that there’s not. Why would this time be any totally different?

Government 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their marketing campaign to affix the Disney board

One factor that will stop Iger from extending his contract is that if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Final week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney Chief Monetary Officer Rasulo criticized Disney’s failed succession planning as a part of a press release asserting their intentions to run for Disney’s board of administrators when nominees are chosen subsequent 12 months.

“In our view, Disney’s board has failed to meet its important tasks – overseeing the event of an efficient technique, planning for orderly succession, aligning govt pay with efficiency, and guaranteeing accountability for operational execution,” Peltz stated within the assertion.

This govt predicted Peltz and Rasulo will win their marketing campaign and each be part of the board. A second individual guessed solely Rasulo will get a spot — maybe by way of a settlement earlier than a vote.

Government 4: Iger will title Dana Walden his successor as Disney CEO

If Iger does go away, he and the Disney board might want to title a successor. I reported in September that Iger plans to call a successor in early 2025 and provides that individual about 20 months to prepare for the role. If that’s the case, an announcement may are available in late 2024. This govt predicted it will likely be Co-chairman of Disney Leisure Dana Walden who will get the nod. Iger will once more transfer to a boss position when Walden takes over as CEO, simply as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.

A second individual threw out a distinct title to key a watch on: Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Digital Arts. This may occasionally appear out of left discipline, however here is some inside baseball for you — the identical govt to say Wilson accurately predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. Then final 12 months, the individual stated Chris Licht would not final the 12 months as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO. Three for 3! So, possibly listen.

Government 5: Disney will purchase Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will place himself as a number one inner candidate to take over for Iger

One final Disney succession prediction! This individual predicted Disney would purchase the privately held Candle Media to amass Moonbug Leisure, the proprietor of CoComelon. Disney would then try and promote the rest of Candle Media’s property at firesale costs, the chief predicted.

Candle Media is co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This individual’s guess is Mayer will return to Disney in a senior working position to place himself as Iger’s prime successor candidate whereas Staggs would go away the corporate.

Government 6: NBA rights will go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple

Probably the most intently watched media tales of 2024 might be what the Nationwide Basketball Affiliation decides to do with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA ideally wants three media companions with totally different packages of video games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Each wish to keep carriage relationships with the NBA, although each corporations have additionally pressured they are going to be monetary disciplined. The league can also be on the lookout for a strong streaming possibility. That is the place Apple would slot in. (For what it is price, a second govt stated he did not assume Apple would even make a bid for NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal’s Peacock may find yourself with them.)

Government 7: The Faculty Soccer Playoff will not get the rights charge improve it desires as ESPN would be the solely important bidder

Aside from the NBA, the CFP could be the subsequent most vital rights deal to be renewed subsequent 12 months. The CFP’s present 12-year take care of ESPN expires after the 2025 playoff.

At the moment, the faculty soccer playoffs will increase from 4 groups to 12. That will sound engaging as a brand new stay sports activities behemoth, however this govt guesses that potential bidders Amazon and Apple will balk on the value CFP desires for the video games. ESPN is determined for stay rights because it prepares a direct-to-consumer service and can renew the bundle, this govt predicts.

Government 8: Native broadcast stations take most native NBA, NHL and MLB sports activities rights away from regional sports activities networks

Sticking with the sports activities theme, the regional sports activities community enterprise may or may not be collapsing. Broadcast stations teams have been in talks with the NBA, NHL and MLB for a lot of the 12 months about selecting up native video games if sure RSNs fail.

Poaching groups from Diamond Sports activities Group, which filed for chapter earlier this 12 months and carries the video games of greater than 40 skilled sports activities groups, has been the first goal so far for corporations reminiscent of EW Scripps and Gray Television. Scripps now carries video games from the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes. Grey reached a deal to broadcast the NBA’s Phoenix Suns earlier this 12 months.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon in talks to spend money on Diamond Sports activities Group to maintain the corporate afloat whereas probably utilizing Prime Video as a touchdown dwelling for streaming rights.

This govt stated he believes the published station teams will emerge as the first winner of rights as leagues will push for the expanded attain of broadcast TV whereas cable subscribers dwindle.

Government 9: Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix and Disney will supply the primary important streaming bundle

Media pundits on CNBC love to say that subscription streaming will ultimately be bundled in one thing that type of appears to be like like (and is priced like) conventional cable TV.

However years into the streaming wars, this hasn’t occurred. Nobody has emerged because the dominant aggregator. No bundle of many providers exists. It is difficult to get media companies on board to comply with what one thing like that will appear to be.

This govt stated 2024 would be the 12 months corporations lastly get severe about bundling, predicting Disney would comply with bundle its trio of streaming providers (Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+) with Max and Netflix to supply a collection of streaming providers — at a reduction — that rivals cable TV.

A second govt famous that such a reduction will most likely must be championed by an anchor distributor. This govt’s guess is that it will likely be Amazon. He additionally predicted Paramount Global‘s Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max might be part of the primary streaming bundle that Amazon affords.

Government 10: RedBird Capital will purchase Paramount International and title Jeff Zucker CEO

Personal fairness agency RedBird Capital, based by Gerry Cardinale, has been stockpiling govt expertise, together with two former NBCUniversal heads in Jeff Zucker and Jeff Shell, who begins work on the personal fairness agency in early 2024.

This govt made the daring name that RedBird will not simply purchase Shari Redstone’s Nationwide Amusements however all of Paramount International, backed by a consortium of outdoor funding, together with cash from David Ellison and BDT Capital, the service provider financial institution run by Byron Trott that backed Redstone earlier this 12 months.

Zucker may then run Paramount International and do the soiled work of deciding what a part of the corporate he desires to run and what to promote. Nonetheless, this govt stated Zucker would preserve a lot of the property and try and show the corporate was undervalued as a publicly traded entity.

Government 11: CNN will let go of certainly one of its prime anchors because it redirects cash to digital

Regardless of how nice CNN makes its programming, the cable information large most likely cannot defeat the larger secular forces of declining cable subscribers. That may imply much less cash coming within the door for brand new CEO Mark Thompson, who plans on investing more in digital.

This govt predicted CNN will not be capable of up its digital spending with out chopping again on a declining linear TV enterprise — and that can imply letting go of not less than certainly one of its big-name anchors to avoid wasting money.

The transfer will usher in a brand new period at CNN, the place star anchors are not the main focus of the corporate.

Government 12: Linda Yaccarino will not final the 12 months as CEO of X

Former NBCUniversal promoting chief Linda Yaccarino joined X as its new CEO in 2023, however the match on the firm appears to make much less and fewer sense by the day as advertisers flee.

Yaccarino suffered by way of an awkward interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin earlier this 12 months when Boorstin requested her if she was a CEO “in title solely” and was solely on the firm to do proprietor Elon Musk’s bidding.

This govt predicted Yaccarino would both lose endurance or discover her job more and more pointless and go away the corporate in 2024.

Government 13: No film will prime $1 billion on the field workplace all 12 months

For the primary time in additional than 15 years, not counting 2020’s pandemic shutdown, no film will prime $1 billion on the field workplace, this govt predicted. (This 12 months, “Barbie” and “The Tremendous Mario Bros. Film” every simply cleared $1 billion, whereas “Oppenheimer” got here in simply shy at round $950 million.) Common’s “Despicable Me 4” has the perfect likelihood, this individual stated. However predicting solely “Despicable Me 4” would prime $1 billion is not as daring, and also you solely stay as soon as … anonymously.

Completely happy holidays!

Disclosure: Comcast is the dad or mum firm of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC.

WATCH: It’s totally laborious to see any strategic consumers of Paramount International, says LightShed’s Greenfield